It’s starting to feel like we’re gearing up for a post-Warcraft MMO scene, where the current powerhouse has settled into its paradigm and has made it clear what it’s doing (and, perhaps more importantly, NOT doing). For anyone who was surfing games during the end of the Everquest era, more and more people are starting to look for something different, or something to play “on the side”, or what have you. The last time this happened, we started to get a lot of competition, slowly eroding the base of the current leader (Everquest, at the time) and usually all trying something a little different from the norm.
It’s been interesting to see history repeat itself, or at least start to show hints that it’s going to. It’s taken a lot longer this time around; WoW has managed to stay on top for a lot longer than Everquest did, and there’s still no definitive successor to the throne.
The Last Big Thing
In 2001, Everquest had been on top for two years, having largely usurped Ultima Online and staying reasonably ahead of its competition: Asheron’s Call. That year saw the first shots across EQ’s bow, in Dark Age of Camelot and Anarchy Online. Dark Age of Camelot took the Everquest model and shaped a strong PvP environment out of it. There was a goodly amount of PvE in the game, but everything at the end came down to its Realm-vs-Realm model, in which three player factions fought over contested territory, especially Keeps. Anarchy Online took a different route, hitting the sci-fi angle rather than the fantasy angle, but keeping much of the gameplay the same. These managed to be different enough that they coexisted with EQ quite solidly, unlike a large number of the similar fantasy-style MMOs that came before and after.
Two years later, in 2003, the experimental phase was in full force. The games released four years into Everquest’s reign deviated hugely from EQ’s model, all trying new things to see what the next success would be. The foray into sci-fi games continued with EvE Online and Star Wars Galaxies, both extremely innovative games that presented the MMORPG in a new way. Shadowbane released as a massive foray into the concept of player housing and player-run content, with its player-made cities and siege-focused PvP, and A Tale In The Desert was a game unlike any other that had been released before, with an entire gameworld shaped by its players.
As with all innovation, not all of these experiments proved to have long-standing appeal, but a lot of the concepts introduced in them made their way into the big release the following year. In these games we saw the introduction of dungeon instancing, the player auction house, mounts, significantly improved chat functionality, and the beginning of quest-oriented gameplay, all of which appear in 2004’s World of Warcraft.
Today’s Big Thing
Just prior to World of Warcraft’s release in late 2004, two other games made their appearance: City of Heroes and Guild Wars. These games both moved back towards the EQ model, albeit with some notable differences. City of Heroes managed to capture the superhero genre in a game the way nothing else really had, and Guild Wars moved heavily into a quest-centric model and gathered quite a large following with its no-subscription-fee model, circumventing something that is still a sticking point for players even now.
World of Warcraft dropped in late 2004, alongside Everquest 2. The surge of popularity for WoW launched the new era of MMORPGs, and set the standard for everything that came next.
Toppling the Giant
The same cycles that we saw with Everquest are starting to make the rounds again. The process has been slower, as the bar set by World of Warcraft has made is significantly harder to make a strong showing in the market, especially for something as difficult to make as an MMO. Player tolerance for instability, lag, or a dearth of content is close to nil, and over the years WoW has made the average player much, much more skilled than they were prior to its release, as well as bringing millions of new players to the genre. It’s no longer acceptable to have punitive, “hardcore” penalties in games, and the feeling of power WoW’s PvE progression brings has proved intoxicating, leaving few players to want to go back to the harsh, unforgiving environments of previous games.
As a result, the scope of innovation has been tightened, as wild, unproven designs are simply too expensive to take the risk on, especially considering the various elements that *must* be excellent for a new MMO to compete. Games have tried and failed to release at the level of polish required of the previous generation, The Matrix Online being a notable example of this, and games like Warhammer Online struggling to compete against the WoW juggernaut. Games like Mortal Online and Vanguard: Saga of Heroes made it clear that while a certain subset of players sought the hardcore environments of the previous generation, they wouldn’t capture the kinds of players they used to. Lord of the Rings Online proved a strong contender by staying close to the WoW model, but presenting itself in subtle but numerous different ways.
Iteration, Not Innovation
We’re starting to see the next generation of MMOs start to surface– games that expand incrementally on the existing template, rather than spiralling into completely new ground. Video games are an iterative process, and while occasionally a shining success in the industry is borne of something completely out of left field (hello, Katamari Damacy), by and large the big hits in the industry are based on what has come before, but with some carefully added features and a couple of new designs, rather than a completely blank slate.
We’re starting to see those games now. Rift is the first, introducing the concept of dynamic content in a way that makes sense and actually works within the MMO framework, as well as honing the idea of character customization to a much greater degree than previous games. Star Wars: The Old Republic looks to be following suit, only emphasizing storytelling and characterization in new ways, something that WoW now struggles with. Guild Wars 2 also seeks to subtly alter the mold, by presenting content and quests to players in a different way, and building on the idea of dynamic content.
The Next Big Thing
There’s no telling what game will topple the current reign of WoW, but by looking at what WoW is and is not doing, and what its competition is focused on, it’s not difficult to get a picture of what that game will look like. Dynamic content sits high on the list of things that WoW simply cannot elegantly do (and doesn’t seem interested in doing), but the difficulties of execution present a high bar, with the best implementation to date appearing in Rift. A new quest model is almost certainly in the cards, as both Guild Wars 2 and The Old Republic seem to be pushing. Expect that up-and-coming MMOs will eschew the “quest text, accept/decline” boxes in the future. Storytelling will also be big– as technology allows the fidelity of our games and the ability to present an MMO the same way a single-player game is presented, we’re going to see the same leaps in storytelling in MMOs as we did when games like Half-Life proved that first-person shooters could tell excellent stories.
I personally hope for a game that changes the way we approach MMO endgames, and while I still think it’s a ways off, an MMO that eschews levels entirely for a whole new model of progression would be very interesting to see. As usual, though, I expect that the next game to really capture me is going to be one I’m not prepared for and that does things I don’t expect. We’ll see what that looks like when the time comes.